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I don't understand why assume that is a 1/1 probablity of S|R instead of R|R? Only ocurrs 1 state of S and in this state you don't know what is the prior state. Why assume that the prior state was S and not R? |
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P(S|R) is the probability that the day that follows a rainy day will be sunny. It probably would have been clearer if he had written something like P(day_(t+1)=S | day_(t)=R) |